It's no secret that Democrats make up the overwhelming majority in Hawaiʻi's Legislature. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t competitive races on the general election ballot where seats could go to the Republican Party.
Political analyst and HPR contributor Neal Milner explained that it’s helpful to look at the races geographically.
“If I were to tell people which races to watch — watch races that have a candidate for each party,” Milner said. “Also anywhere in the area from Waipahu out all the way to Mākaha and then some of the Mililani districts.”
There are currently two Republican senators and six representatives in the state Legislature. However, that could change.
Senate District 22
One of the key races is Senate District 22, which covers Ko Olina through Waiʻanae and Mākua in West Oʻahu.
The district is facing significant issues including homelessness, crime and gridlock traffic.
House Democrat Cedric Gates is running for the seat against Republican Samantha DeCorte.
Gates is focused on the cost of living, particularly strategic tax cuts on food and medicine, as well as improving accessibility to renewable energy.
DeCorte's top priority is to house Native Hawaiians by expanding funding for the Department of Hawaiian Home Lands in order to pay for land acquisition and infrastructure development.
Both candidates have also prioritized public safety and want more resources for law enforcement after several recent instances of violent crime in the area. DeCorte wants to see a crackdown on ghost guns, while Gates says there needs to be a stronger focus on de-escalation tactics within the community.
In the 2022 election, DeCorte lost to former Sen. Maile Shimabukuro by fewer than 75 votes.
Local political analyst Colin Moore explained that Republican candidates, like DeCorte and North Shore Sen. Brenton Awa, often do better in Hawaiʻi when they focus on local issues.
“Neither directly connects themselves to former President Trump or the MAGA movement, or have been really active in pushing socially conservative issues,” Moore said.
“Here in Hawaiʻi, I think that tends to be pretty politically smart. Republicans tend to do best ... offering an alternative to Hawaiʻi Democrats.”
Senate District 23
Awa is also facing a close race against longtime community advocate Ben Shafer for the District 23 seat.
“These two campaigns are being run very differently and Brenton Awa has a very strong social media presence. He's known to be a bit of a maverick in the state Legislature,” Moore said.
“At the same time, Ben Schaefer is running a real grassroots campaign. He has deep connections in that community. He was really well known in part as a result of his fight against the Turtle Bay Resort expansion years ago. So this one could really go either way. I think this will really come down to turnout," he continued.
Awa pledged not to campaign and has received no political contributions this year. Instead, his Instagram focuses on planting food trees to replace plants damaged by the invasive coconut rhinoceros beetle and banning foreign investors from buying property in Hawaiʻi.
Shafer has raised about $57,000 in his campaign so far. His main focus is addressing climate change and its impact on infrastructure and homes on the North Shore. He also wants to address the high cost of living and government accountability.
Moore explained that this race is different from the 2022 election when Awa ran against former longtime Sen. Gil Riviere. At the time, Awa positioned himself as an alternative to the Democratic establishment. However, that’s not the case with this election cycle in his run against Shafer.
“Both of the candidates are nontraditional. It's not as if there's really a vote for the Democratic establishment there,” Moore said.
People should have already received their mail-in ballots, and election centers are open for those who want to cast their vote in person.
