David Lopez is standing in front of a screen at the headquarters of the Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency, showing three hurricanes churning across the Pacific.
Lopez, the agency’s administrator, points out another monitor detailing how authorities are responding to problems created when Hurricane Lala battered Kaʻū last month.
This year’s El Nino is keeping emergency managers busy monitoring new hurricanes approaching Hawaiʻi waters even as they help people recover from the last one.
“Right now it seems just like this kind of constant development of the storms moving out of there, and the conditions are right for them to continue to build,” said Lopez.
In a normal year, four or five tropical cyclones pass through the Central Pacific, but forecasters say there could be 13 this year.
There have already been four — including Hurricane Lowell which lashed Kauaʻi and Niʻihau last week.
Unusually warm Pacific Ocean waters near the equator are a major reason for the onslaught.
An El Nino forms when these temperatures rise a half-degree Celsius above normal. They are already more than 2 degrees Celsius higher than normal — and could rise further, said John Bravender, the warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
“Over the past couple months, ocean temperatures have warmed up very fast,” Bravender said.
The hotter waters are expected to help storms form into October, November and even beyond, he said.
“We've had tropical cyclones that form in December as well during strong El Nino years. So hurricane season could be longer,” he said.
El Ninos occur naturally. There's no conclusive evidence that human-caused climate change increases their intensity or frequency. But global warming can amplify El Nino’s destructive effects.
Scientists say that the El Nino will affect weather worldwide. It’s expected to deliver drought and wildfires in Indonesia, Australia and South America. Part of the continental U.S. will get above-average rain.
Beyond hurricanes, El Nino is expected to bring Hawai’i a drier winter, big north shore surf and elevated wildfire risks.
Preparing for the next disaster
Darryl Oliveira, the interim administrator of Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense, said his awareness is heightened.
His agency has started checking National Hurricane Center maps showing where tropical cyclones may form before the storms take shape. The maps provide a percentage chance a storm may form over a particular part of the ocean within 48 hours or a week.
“We're trying to be a little bit more sensitive to what's being monitored and watch very closely,” Oliveira said. “Just because we'd like to have as much time as possible to advise the community, the public, on what could be developing.”
Maui County has been adding to its ability to respond to disasters since the 2023 wildfires leveled large sections of Lahaina and Kula and killed 102 people.
The Maui Emergency Management Agency now has staff who manage vegetation that could fuel blazes and who remove debris and trees that could block streams and contribute to flooding during heavy rains.
The agency has grown from nine to 25 people as of June, and it plans to add six more employees by January.
The threat posed by hurricanes may be higher due to El Nino, but administrator Amos Lonokailua-Hewett said the agency has been preparing to face all hazards.
He urged residents to get ready as well, adding that this will help authorities restore power, clear roads and save people after a disaster.
“The way we overcome this together is every one of us, every single one of us has to do our part to prepare ourselves and prepare our families,” Lonokailua-Hewett said.
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