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Meteorologist on unexpected flash flooding in Mānoa, latest forecast

Residential damage seen after the flash flooding in Mānoa Valley.
Courtesy Conrad Newfield
Residential damage was seen after the flash flooding in Mānoa Valley. (March 23, 2026)

The National Guard is out helping with the cleanup in the aftermath of the flash flooding that took place across the state. Gov. Josh Green has formally requested a presidential major disaster declaration to receive federal aid in order to help those impacted by the back-to-back storms.

“FEMA leads from, you know, across the region, Region 9, are arriving right now and working hand in hand with our teams,” Green said at a news conference.

“The ask that I had to the federal administration, and specifically to the Homeland Security director, was, do what you can to help us as soon as possible.”

Around the time that Green held that news conference, images of flooding in Mānoa Valley began circulating on social media and took many by surprise. Waterfalls were visible in the mountains above Pālolo Valley, and water gushed through Mānoa Marketplace and Noelani Elementary School.

It was not the first time flooding had hit that area. In 2004, a flash flood caused millions of dollars of damage to the UH Mānoa campus and surrounding neighborhoods.

HPR reached out to the National Weather Service to better understand why its models did not flag the risk of flooding in that area. Meteorologist John Bravender acknowledged forecasters did not anticipate the impact in the Mānoa area.


Interview Highlights

On why the conditions weren't detected beforehand

JOHN BRAVENDER: We were thinking most of the heaviest rain had shifted eastward and would be Maui and the Big Island, by that part of the state. But this just highlights how quickly heavy rain can develop in a tropical air mass like this.

Hamilton Library stacks after the Oct. 30, 2004, flood.
University of Hawaiʻi News
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University of Hawaiʻi News
Hamilton Library stacks after the Oct. 30, 2004, flood.

Comparing the 2004 flood to now

BRAVENDER: One of the big drivers from the 2004 Mānoa flood, especially how it affected the University of Hawaiʻi campus, was build-up of debris within the stream bed that blocked the culverts and forced the stream out of the bed and ended up flowing through campus and causing so much damage. We had a lot of flooding yesterday, too, but it was confined to the stream area. I don't want to downplay the flooding that did occur in the people that did suffer damage, but 2004 was a lot more widespread damage as the debris in the stream blocked up the drainage and actually forced the stream out of the stream bed. And it ended up flowing through campus and caused a lot more damage. And not to discount all the people that were impacted yesterday with the flooding; it could have been worse had city officials not taken the time to clear out trees, clear out debris from the stream bed to make sure that Mānoa stream stayed where it was supposed to go.

On the post-flood forecast

BRAVENDER: We've been in this light Kona wind pattern for several weather systems that have come through and brought repeated rounds of flooding. It looks like that pattern is finally giving way, and we're getting back into a period of trade winds. So breezy northeast winds today, that's a good sign. It’ll help clear out some of this moisture, get us back into a more typical, stable trade wind pattern through the course of the week. ... Still threat for heavy rain over the eastern half of the state. Flood Watch for Maui and the Big Island. Today, there's still chances for heavy rain thunderstorms to that area. So what we saw yesterday could still impact Maui and Hawaiʻi islands today.

On preparing for emergencies

BRAVENDER: This underscores people's need to know what to do when a flash flood happens. We don't have a lot of time to prepare. Know where your hazards are if you're in a flood zone, if you're in an area that's prone to flooding, have a plan ahead of time, what you're going to do and how to take action, because there could be very little time for you to hear the warning and need to take action right away.


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This story aired on The Conversation on March 24, 2026. The Conversation airs weekdays at 11 a.m. Jinwook Lee adapted this story for the web.

Catherine Cruz is the host of The Conversation. Contact her at ccruz@hawaiipublicradio.org.
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