Tourism has been top of mind ever since the latest data from the Governor’s office has shown that visitors are cutting their Hawaiian vacations short.
Political hotspots across the globe are putting pressure on affordability not just for visitors but for local residents looking to travel as well.
To learn more about the factors at play behind rising airfare and Hawaiʻi’s declining tourism data, HPR spoke with economist Carl Bonham, the executive director of the University of Hawaiʻi’s Economic Research Organization, or UHERO.
The organization just released its economic forecast for quarter 3 of 2026, and with rising fuel costs and recent storms, the look ahead is sobering.
Interview Highlights
On Hawaiʻi’s economic forecast
CARL BONHAM: Unfortunately, the picture for Hawaiʻi is not very good. We're basically not growing. We're not adding jobs. In fact, our forecast for the year is for job losses. … So the economy is very much stagnating, and the conditions that are leading to that, you know, very high energy costs, affordability issues and the weather events all suggest that this year is not going to be one that we're going to look back on fondly. And our forecast is for recovery to begin next year, but that's just a forecast, and it depends on what happens globally. No one can tell you how long the conflict in Iran is going to go on.
On the strength of the U.S. economy
BONHAM: So there's a lot of things to be concerned about, and yet, you know, the same data revisions I pointed to that were not so great for Hawaiʻi pointed to even stronger growth for the U.S. as a whole. So you have the people who have income and who have wealth, the people in the top of the income distribution who are benefiting from stock market gains and are out spending money and they're still traveling while the rest of us look at the ticket prices and go “I think I'll stay home.” I wouldn't bet against the U.S. economy. And … 80% of our visitor spending is U.S. visitors. I guess there's a lot of things to worry about, but we are consistently, regularly surprised by the strength of the U.S. economy, which is so crucial to our economic growth in the tourism industry overall.
On Hawaiʻi’s economic recovery
BONHAM: I don't think it'll be anything to get excited about if our forecast comes true. We'll see another year of extremely limited job growth, weak income growth, modest tourism recovery. But as you say, so much of this depends on things that are outside of our control. … There's a lot of work to be done to turn things around for a longer period of time in terms of creating that economic environment so that businesses can reinvest in themselves, become more productive, pay higher wages, create jobs, create economic opportunity here, so that our kids can live here or come home. And so no one would accuse us of being overly optimistic.
This story aired on The Conversation on Oct. 8, 2026. The Conversation airs weekdays at 11 a.m. Jinwook Lee adapted this story for the web.
