The National Weather Service is forecasting a busier, more intense hurricane season for Hawaiʻi and the Pacific this year.
It’s due to the likelihood of a more intense El Niño, a climate phenomenon where hotter ocean temperatures in the Pacific set the stage for stronger and more frequent storms.
John Bravender is the warning coordination meteorologist with NOAA's National Weather Service. According to Bravender, while the Central Pacific typically sees an average of four to five storms, this year's forecast calls for as many as five to 13.
Interview Highlights
On forecasting El Niño
JOHN BRAVENDER: This developing El Niño, it could be strong. This time of year is difficult for computer models to latch on to exactly how strong it'll be. As we get out of the springtime or into the summertime, they'll be more confident in how strong the ocean warming will be for the summer. But yes, going forward, very high chance for at least moderate or greater strength to the El Niño conditions leading to these impacts that we're concerned about: more tropical cyclones, summertime rainfall, warm and humid conditions.
On how El Niño impacts Hawaiʻi
BRAVENDER: One of the big drivers to this outlook is a long-term weather pattern called ENSO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation. El Niño, the warm phase, means there's warm waters along the equator across the Pacific. And what that means for us, for our weather pattern in Hawaiʻi, is for the summertime, hurricane season tends to be busier than normal. More tropical cyclones form. It also means we could see warmer temperatures this summer, lighter winds, weaker trade winds leading to more hot and humid conditions.
On the importance of storm preparation
BRAVENDER: The season outlook is for how busy we'll be in the central Pacific as a whole, and it doesn't address potential impacts to Hawaiʻi, so every year we need to prepare the same. And it becomes cliché, but we say it every year: all it takes is one hurricane to change your life. So as we go into this hurricane season, maybe we've gotten by, we've been lucky in the past few years with some near misses. But as we go into this hurricane season, if you haven't developed a family preparedness plan, if you haven't set aside food and water, this is the time to do it.
The National Weather Service joined Gov. Josh Green’s Hurricane Weather Outlook news conference on May 21 along with county officials across the state to discuss the forecast for the upcoming hurricane season.
This story aired on The Conversation on May 21, 2026. The Conversation airs weekdays at 11 a.m. Jinwook Lee adapted this story for the web.
