When Kīlauea’s eruption kicked off a few days before Christmas in 2024, geophysicist Ingrid Johanson didn’t anticipate it would become the start of a record-breaking streak of episodes.
"What we've seen in the last year and a half has been unprecedented," she said.
Johanson and her colleagues at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory are gearing up for the 50th episode of Kīlauea's eruption, which could start as soon as next week.
Since December 2024, Kīlauea has settled into a predictable pattern, erupting roughly every one to three weeks. But that predictability hasn’t made these events any less striking to behold. During Episode 49 on June 14, towering lava fountains rose nearly 700 feet in the air — higher than Seattle's Space Needle.
After more than a year and a half of intermittent eruptions, the volcano "shows no signs of slowing down," said geologist Drew Downs with the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. This consistent activity has given researchers like Downs new insights into the volcano’s range of eruptive behavior.
Lava fountains have spewed fragments of rock and volcanic glass called tephra, which can be as fine as grains of flour or as large as footballs. Using a combination of satellite imagery, citizen surveys, and other tools, Downs is tracking how these volcanic deposits travel through the atmosphere and settle in surrounding communities.
"We're getting a much better understanding of how the lava rips itself apart as it's thrown in the air," Downs said.
Johanson studies ground deformation, or changes in the Earth's surface as a result of moving magma or earthquakes. Her work has been key to forecasting when Kīlauea's episodes will take place.
Before an eruption, pressure builds within the volcano’s underground magma chamber. Once that pressure reaches a certain level, it triggers lava fountaining. Johanson and her colleagues have observed consistent ground deformation as a result of this pressure, allowing them to pinpoint when conditions are ripe for a new episode.
"This is not necessarily how every episodic fountaining eruption behaves, … so our ability to provide these forecasts really is in part because of this unique behavior," Johanson said.
So far, Kīlauea has given no indication of winding down this period of activity. In fact, Johanson said that asking when Kīlauea will "stop" is the wrong question.
"It's unlikely that Kīlauea will ever stop. Kīlauea just changes," she said.
Instead, researchers are focused on how Kīlauea’s behavior might shift. At some point, magma might travel to another part of the volcano, indicating an eruption could start in a new location.
Kīlauea's 50th episode is forecast to occur between July 23-27.
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