The state Council on Revenues maintains a cautious view of the state's finances, forecasting a negative 4.7% general fund growth rate for this fiscal year.
This is unchanged from its last projection in September. The council has stayed confident in its negative prediction due to the changes in federal tax laws last year, which included a higher standard deduction, child tax credits, and temporary additional bonuses for folks 65 years or older.
“Part of the reason those numbers are as low as they are is because those are being pulled down by the tax law,” said COR member Carl Bonham.
“I still think there's a lot of risk to the U.S. economy — I guess I would describe it as being kind of fragile, but one of the things that's going to happen in 2026 is that they're going to get bigger tax refunds than they have in the past. There's a lot of tailwinds coming from tax law.”
Members noted that tourism rates were relatively flat, with no change to arrival rates and a slight increase in visitor spending. Bonham said these numbers often sway the council’s overall prediction, but were not significant enough this year.
The council’s projection for fiscal year 2027 was also left unchanged, at a 2% general fund growth rate. Members predict a steady increase in growth through 2032.
The state Legislature is required to base its budget on projections from the COR. The 2026 legislative session starts Jan. 21.
