New research suggests that Kīlauea experienced changes below its surface leading up to its catastrophic 2018 eruption.
Even when Kīlauea is not actively erupting, magma may be traveling through the volcano’s internal plumbing. Seismic waves can offer a picture of these processes that otherwise remain hidden from view, said University of Hawaiʻi seismologist Sin-Mei Wu.
In a recent study, Wu and her colleagues used the seismic data generated by the energy of ocean waves crashing on Hawaiʻi Island’s coastlines to understand the pathways inside Kīlauea.
That data suggests that something blocked the flow of magma into the shallow reservoir below Kīlauea's summit caldera in late 2016. That disruption diverted magma pressure towards the East Rift Zone and Puʻuʻōʻō.
The blockage persisted until an earthquake occurred below the rift zone and restored flow to the reservoir. Within a few months, Kīlauea’s devastating lava flows began.
Wu said it's too soon to say if there's a causal link between their findings and the 2018 eruption, but she hopes to learn if similar anomalies have occurred before other eruptions.
"Considering the long history of Kīlauea, we don't know whether this is one unique event or this is common for Kīlauea," she said.
Wu is also collecting data on Kīlauea's current eruptive episodes to understand how they compare with Kīlauea's past behavior.
Kīlauea recently ended episode 38 of its ongoing eruption, which began in December 2024. During this most recent phase of the eruption, lava fountains climbed 1,200 feet in the air, which is roughly the height of six Aloha Towers.
Experts expect that Kīlauea will experience another episode before the end of the year.
"It seems to me, it's not normal," Wu said. "But I also want to understand better whether we are in the abnormal era or it is just part of the norm, and everything is still working in progress."
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