The mid-term general elections are scheduled for Tuesday. Hawaiʻi is a vote-by-mail state and many voters have already put their ballots in the mail or dropped them in a ballot box.
Hawaiʻi's Office of Elections expects to release results on Tuesday evening, after the last person in line at voter service centers has cast their ballot. Anyone in line at 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote.
Below are six things to look out for when the votes start coming in.
1. GOP presence in the state Legislature
Eyes will be on whether Republicans can further chip away at Democratic Party dominance in the state Legislature by adding to the seats they won two years ago — or whether they will lose ground.
The GOP picked up three seats in the state House and one in the Senate in 2024. All were in West Oʻahu. The GOP currently holds 10 out of 51 seats in the House and three out of 25 in the Senate.
Republicans could expand their presence at the Capitol if voters take their anger about the high cost of living out on Democrats who control Hawaiʻi's executive and legislative branches, said former lawmaker and author Beth Fukumoto. Republicans could also get a boost if voters remember this year's bribery indictments of some prominent Democrats, she said.
But Colin Moore, a University of Hawaiʻi political science professor, predicted Republicans will lose ground in the islands compared to 2024 because President Donald Trump is not on the ballot. Some people who turned out to vote for him during the presidential election won't cast ballots this year and that will mean fewer votes for GOP candidates, he said.
Key Senate contests: Mililani, Waipahu and ʻEwa Beach
Key House contests: Hawaiʻi Kai, Moanalua and Oʻahu's North Shore
2. Third-party candidate could make it to the House
An unusual three-way race in West Maui could send the first Green Party candidate to the state House.
The Republican incumbent, Elle Cochran, was last elected as a Democrat but switched parties in March. She endured some criticism for missing 51 out of the last legislative session's 60 days. She said she was needed more in her district helping Lahaina fire survivors than in the Capitol.
Sne Patel is the Democratic candidate. He has worked in Lahaina restaurants and art galleries and has served on boards and commissions.
The Green candidate is Paʻele Kiakona, a leader of the influential community group Lahaina Strong, which led protests for housing after the 2023 Maui wildfires.
He's won some major union endorsements, including from the International Longshore and Warehouse Union, which represents many hotel workers on Maui, and the Hawaii Government Employees Association, which is the state's largest public sector union.
The last time a third-party lawmaker served in the Legislature was in 1904, when Hawaiʻi was a U.S. territory. Several independents and members of the Home Rule Party, which advocated for Native Hawaiian rights, served in the House and Senate then.
3. Voter turnout
Moore said ballot returns have so far been lower than the last mid-term in 2022 — even as other states report significantly higher turnout.
He attributes the gap to the lack of competitive major races in Hawaiʻi, adding that many races were effectively settled during the primary.
4. Long list of ballot questions
Voters have been weighing in on multiple ballot measures at the state and county levels. Honolulu had the most with 20.
A state constitutional amendment question, if passed, would give the counties a new way to pay for sewer, water, drainage and other infrastructure for new homes in a defined district, which supporters say would boost housing construction. The counties would have the authority to issue bonds (called RISE bonds) that would be paid off by higher property tax revenue generated by the redeveloped area.
The political action committee RISE Together Hawaiʻi spent more than $2.8 million on television and other advertising in support of the measure. Unionized carpenters, developers and Hawaiʻi real estate agents were among those donating to the PAC.
One Honolulu amendment, if approved, would establish ranked-choice voting for mayor, city council, and prosecuting attorney races, beginning in 2032.
5. Hawaiʻi in Congress
Democrats are trying to ride a wave of voter frustration with inflation, high gas prices, the war in Iran, and tariffs to take back the U.S. House and Senate.
Hawaiʻi could benefit if the party takes the Senate, Moore said, because there's a good chance Sen. Brian Schatz could rise to majority whip. It's the second-highest ranking position in the chamber. Whoever has the job is one of the county's most powerful politicians.
"That will mean that Hawaiʻi will get special consideration when it comes to national legislation and pretty much everything," Moore said.
The current Democratic Party minority whip is Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, who didn't run for reelection. Schatz is now chief deputy whip.
6. PAC spending on Maui County mayor's race
PACs have been pouring into the Maui mayor's race, particularly in support of County Council member Yuki Lei Sugimura's campaign to oust incumbent Mayor Richard Bissen.
The For A Better Tomorrow PAC — which is backed by the Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters, which is the state's largest trade union — spent more than $2 million to support Sugimura's campaign. It also spent more than $11,000 to oppose Bissen.
That amounts to about $17 for each registered voter in Maui County. There are nearly 117,000 registered voters in Maui County.
The HiVISION2020 PAC, which receives funding from the Plumbers and Pipefitters Political Action Committee, spent $21,000 to support Sugimura in the general election.
Some other union PACs backed Bissen's election, though in smaller amounts. Hawaii Workers Strong, a political action committee led by officers from the Hawaii State AFL-CIO and the Hawaii Government Employees Association, spent nearly $40,000 for Bissen in the general election.
