Hāmākua on the northern coast of Hawaiʻi Island has had more than 90 fires so far this year — three times higher than average.
"In a normal year at this point, we'd be looking at somewhere between 15 to 30," said Hawaiʻi Island Fire Chief Kazuo Todd.
Human activity is responsible for the majority of wildland fires.
Todd said that a September fire in Hāmākua's Manowaiale’e Forest Reserve that burned 600 acres was likely caused by a hunter who left a cooking fire unattended or tossed a lit cigarette into the undergrowth.
That blaze may have been lit inadvertently, but Todd said he suspects that at least some of Hāmākua's recent fires have been started on purpose.
"There's a heavy suspicion, when you get three fires in one night, all in the same region," he said. "I can tell you it's arson, but, you know, I can't necessarily prove it is arson."
Motives aside, dry conditions in Hāmākua are increasing risk.
Hāmākua is on the wet, windward side of Hawaiʻi Island. Historically, its coastline has received around 100 inches of rainfall per year.
But in recent years, rainfall levels have been trending down, and Hāmākua is experiencing drought conditions ranging from severe to extreme.
"In the past, we've had people throwing cigarettes or starting campfires, and because this is generally the wet side of the island, it's just never transitioned into a wildland fire. It self-extinguishes," Todd said.
But now, he said, "every little thing can potentially start a fire and actually transition it into a full-blown wildland fire."
Is climate change the culprit behind dry conditions?
The Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal's precipitation data goes back to 1991. According to the data, Hāmākua is experiencing record-low levels of rainfall.
But HCDP climate analyst Cherryle Heu said it’s "too soon" to conclude that Hāmākua is facing a permanent shift towards a drier climate.
Derek Ford with the Pacific Drought Knowledge Exchange said that climate change is having at least one clear impact: Air temperatures in Hawaiʻi are trending up.
That extra heat is removing moisture from the landscape, which is making regions like Hāmākua more flammable.
November marks the start of the wet season in Hawaiʻi, and Todd said that he and his firefighters are hopeful for some relief.
"As we move into this side of the year, we start seeing it get wetter, and all firemen are happy," he said.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average rainfall for Hawaiʻi this winter. But Ford said that four years of drought conditions in Hāmākua aren't going to be solved by a few months of rain.
"It might squash some short-term flammability risk by just wetting the surface of everything. Once the rain stops, the landscape will still be really dry until we get prolonged return of rainfall," he said.
Hawaiʻi Public Radio exists to serve all of Hawai’i, and it’s the people of Hawai’i who keep us independent and strong. Help keep us strong to serve you in the future. Donate today.
