The economic impact of the Maui fires may linger for years.
According to a third-quarter forecast from UHERO, the economic costs of the Maui fires will be felt on that island, and statewide, “well into the future.”
"We know that the Maui economy is heavily tourism dependent, not quite as much as you may have seen in some news reports. About 40% of all economic activity on Maui is attributable to tourism. Statewide, Maui County represents about one third of total visitor spending," Carl Bonham, UHERO's executive director, said in a video message.
UHERO economists reported that Maui experienced a “severe economic disruption” following the fires, as visitor arrivals dropped by nearly three-quarters and the island lost more than $13 million of visitor spending each day in the weeks following the fire.
According to the report, tourism recovery is beginning, with central and south Maui resorts expected to be the first areas to see “substantial recovery.”
UHERO anticipates visitor arrivals to Maui to reach more than 50% of 2022 levels by the end of the year and 80% by the end of 2024.
Additionally, employment losses on the Valley Isle could slow the state income levels to below 2% in 2024, even with federal support flowing into the affected areas.
The state Department of Commerce and Consumer Affairs’ Office of Consumer Protection has issued an extension on the existing price freeze for essential goods and services including food, water and gas. However, economists say that the value of lost homes and businesses outweighs most domestic product expenses.
What comes after 2024, UHERO said, will be influenced more by what happens with housing and the reconstruction phase, and the need to continue housing displaced residents, emergency workers and, eventually, construction workers.
