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DBEDT forecasts economic growth for Hawaiʻi despite predicted national decline

AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

State economists predict slight growth for the rest of the year despite a projected decline in national economic activity.

According to the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism’s latest economic forecast, the state’s yearly growth was revised from 1.7% to 1.8%.

The state’s chief economist Eugene Tian said tourism and construction activity, as well as general excise tax revenues, led to a more optimistic forecast.

While tourism is expected to continue recovering to pre-pandemic levels, he said a decline in U.S. visitor arrivals will impact each island differently.

Tian said other counties are already seeing a decline in U.S. passenger arrivals – most notably from the west coast.

"We will see some weakening from the US West Coast. And we will see some increase from international visitors that will impact Oʻahu more because in terms of visitor composition, Oʻahu is about 50/50: 50 domestic, 50 international," Tian said.

"But as the decrease in the U.S. visitors will impact nearby islands, normally neighbor islands have about 85 domestic, 15 international," he continued.

Hawaiʻi unemployment claims didn’t change much last week. The Thursday postings show 5,612 total jobless claims, down only 71 from the week before.

The payroll processing company ADP says, based on aggregate data from all its client companies, job stayers saw their pay rise an average 6.5% over the past year. In Hawaiʻi, wages rose more — 7.1%, comparing May last year.

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