Forecasters are not expecting drought this summer in Hawaiʻi — but they warn that El Niño weather patterns could lead to a longer wildfire season. Those conditions could also lead to another set of challenges in Southeast Asia.
Severe haze could be a problem later this year across several parts of Southeast Asia. That prediction comes from the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
The independent think tank has produced an annual regional haze outlook every year since 2019. This year, the group warns of a “high risk of severe haze,” and not just because of El Niño.
Forecasters expect a similar warming of the sea surface over the Indian Ocean — which could intensify and lengthen the dry season not only for Singapore, but also for Brunei, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
The war in Iran is even playing a role.
Because of higher costs of fuel and fertilizer since the start of the war, the think tank says landowners are more likely to clear land by using fire instead of machinery, because it's cheaper.
The report also cites a growing demand for biofuels, which means growers wanting to quickly expand their planting areas are more likely to use slash-and-burn operations to clear land.
There's also a geopolitical angle to the increased haze.
In the past, Indonesia, in particular, has come under pressure from regional neighbors to do more to control unregulated burning and other unsustainable practices.
