The economic outlook for 2026 is the focus of the January issue of Hawaii Business Magazine. Reporter and former editor Cynthia Wessendorf joined The Conversation to talk about what industry leaders are forecasting.
Last year was full of uncertainty with tariff threats, and economists are expecting more of the same, but with hope and a touch of optimism.
Wessendorf stressed that one-third of Hawaiʻi’s economy is based on tourism and federal spending.
“About 80% of the visitors come from the U.S. mainland. In 2019, that would have been 60%, so there's a heavy concentration of American tourists, and all of those people are subject to any changes in the U.S. economy,” Weddesndorf said.
While tourism numbers continue to shift, Wessendorf explained that Japanese visitors seem to be booking flights to Hawaiʻi.
"It's nothing like 2019, but it is on the good trajectory for them, so they're very happy about that," she said.
She also added that the military represents a giant piece of federal funding, including through an $8 billion contract to improve infrastructure at military bases.
However, federally funded safety nets like SNAP funding and FEMA disaster recovery remain on the chopping block, Wessendorf said.
This story aired on The Conversation on Jan. 5, 2026. The Conversation airs weekdays at 11 a.m. Hannah Kaʻiulani Coburn adapted this story for the web.
