A volunteer modeling group that tracks COVID numbers predicts new positive cases in the state could hit 4,500 by this weekend.
But members of the Hawaiʻi Pandemic Applied Modeling Work Group, or HiPAM, hope the daunting number will influence people to be more cautious, thereby causing the prediction to fall short.
Dr. Monique Chyba is a mathematician at the University of Hawaiʻi and a member of HiPAM. She says dire predictions in the past have helped curb rising case counts.
"That’s what we saw with the Delta surge this past August. We forecasted 3,000 numbers in early September and that’s where we were heading and that was really a red flag and a warning and that’s what we’re doing again," Chyba told HPR's The Conversation.
"We are really waving the red flag that we are heading in the wrong direction and that we have to be very careful right now. I know it’s the holiday and people don’t want to hear that," Chyba said. "Individual behavior needs to be adjusted in order to avoid keeping on the surge that we see currently."
Chyba says there is a cone of uncertainty in their modeling, as they do not have access to critical statistics such as demographics and vaccination rates of those hospitalized.
HiPAM is working with the state Department of Health to get access to more detailed statistics.
"We didn't predict that we would have a pandemic like this. So we didn't really allocate resources for the Department of Health to really be up and running with this kind of level of data and challenge. So they're doing the best they can," said University of Hawaiʻi Maui College mathematician and HiPAM member Tom Blamey.
The Conversation reached out to the health department about accessing timely information. It has data about race and age on its website but said some information about hospitalizations and vaccinations needs to come directly from hospitals.
"We're all in this together. No one is safe until everyone's safe. Controlling COVID requires everyone's participation, support, trust. We have to trust each other, that we will get through this together," said University of Hawaiʻi health economist and HiPAM member Victoria Fan.
On Thursday, Hawaiʻi reported a statewide record of nearly 3,500 cases.
This interview aired on The Conversation on Dec. 30, 2021. The Conversation airs weekdays at 11 a.m. on HPR-1.
