Despite uncertainty regarding tariffs and federal job layoffs, personal income in Hawaiʻi is expected to slightly increase this year, but remain flat in 2026. That’s the latest forecast from the state Council on Revenues.
Council member Carl Bonham said one of the reasons 2025 is seeing an increase is that the state started the year very strong.
“Hotels are adding workers, retailers are adding workers," Bonham said. "I think we're probably in the top five for year-over-year job growth in the whole country, which is kind of surprising, but if you look at the data for the last few months, the monthly changes have really — they’ve flattened out. So there was a surge in the year-over-year comparison as comparing to a weak start in 2024. So what I'm getting at is that we started off pretty strong, but I think we're heading for that slowdown.”
Tourism arrival numbers have been weak in June and July — although Oʻahu has seen an 8% increase in visitor spending.
Bonham added that nearly every labor sector in the state, besides civilian federal jobs, has been growing. Hospitality and health care have seen particularly large demand.
But when it comes to 2026, inflation is supposed to increase to 4.6%. It’s largely due to the tariffs imposed on imported goods.
That’s why, although the council is forecasting a 4.6% personal income increase for next year, it’s likely going to be offset by rising inflation rates.
