Hawaiʻi has until 2030 to slash greenhouse gas emissions in half compared to 2005 levels. Modeling from multiple state agencies predicts Hawaiʻi will fall short of that important milestone in its effort to achieve carbon neutrality.
That 2030 emission reduction target isn't just an aspirational goal — it's a law. So what are the consequences if the state misses that target, and, essentially, breaks the law?
"I'll start with the simple answer, which is nothing," said Richard Wallsgrove, the co-director of the environmental law program at the University of Hawaiʻi William S. Richardson School of Law.
Wallsgrove explained that no state officials are going to be carted off to jail in handcuffs on Jan. 1, 2031, if Hawaiʻi fails to meet its statutory mandate on emissions reduction.
And while a private entity can be charged fines if it's out of compliance with the law, that typically doesn't happen with state agencies.
But that's not to say that the state's planning objectives are completely unenforceable.
Wallsgrove said that the language around the state's carbon reduction targets is actually quite broad — every single agency in the state is responsible for implementing these targets.
"In fact, the statute is quite clear that every decision that every agency makes should be made partially through the lens of how it helps us to achieve these sorts of targets," he said.
That means a state agency could be out of compliance today if it's not factoring these targets into its decision-making.
The governor and private citizens can take action
The governor is authorized to withhold funds from agencies if they are not abiding by the state's carbon pollution statutes. But you don't need executive authority to nudge the state to uphold its climate laws.
"A citizen could point out anywhere in the breadth of state government that these targets aren't being appropriately chased," Wallsgrove said. "They could seek to invalidate agency decisions on that basis."
If an agency doesn't agree with a citizen's petition, that citizen could take their challenge to court.
While Hawaiʻi's overall progress on its 2030 carbon reduction target has yet to be the subject of a lawsuit, Wallsgrove said the state has seen an analogous case.
In 2017, the private advocacy group Life of the Land appealed the Public Utilities Commission's approval of Hu Honua's permit to operate a biomass plant on Hawaiʻi Island on the grounds that the PUC did not adequately factor in the potential harms of the plant's emissions into its decision-making.
The PUC reversed its decision after a ruling from the Hawaiʻi Supreme Court ordered the regulatory agency to take the air pollution of the plant into account.
Wallsgrove said the state may be subject to more lawsuits seeking to hold the government accountable to its own climate goals.
"I don't think we have to wait until 2030 for that to happen. The 2030 target is one moment in time, but it's really the body of decision making that gets us to these various targets that is subject to legal action," he said.
Are other states doing any better?
Across the country, legal questions around climate goals are coming to a head.
Hawaiʻi is one of 24 states, along with the District of Columbia, that has adopted some kind of emissions reduction target. As clocks tick down to these climate deadlines, Hawaiʻi isn’t the only state that may miss the mark.
Vermont's state government is currently embroiled in a lawsuit over whether it missed a target set for this year.
New England's Conservation Law Foundation has filed a complaint against Vermont's Agency of Natural Resources, which is responsible for administering the state's emission reduction efforts.
Last year, the agency said the state was on track to meet a 2025 deadline to reduce emissions by 26% compared to 2005 levels. But CLF claimed that the agency's modeling was flawed and that the state was likely to fall short of its goals.
When the state maintained that its modeling was accurate, CLF sued. The state has since acknowledged that its emissions reduction progress has stalled, but the lawsuit is ongoing.
CLF was able to sue because Vermont's emissions reduction law includes something called a citizen suit provision, which gives private citizens and groups standing to sue the government.
"It's a really incredibly valuable accountability measure," said Patrick Parenteau, a professor emeritus at Vermont Law School and former commissioner at the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation.
Although the ultimate outcome of CLF's lawsuit is yet to be determined, it has not inspired an all-hands-on-deck effort to get Vermont on course to achieve its climate goals.
In fact, lawmakers introduced a measure this year that would scratch out the citizen suit provision in Vermont’s climate law.
Without it, Parenteau said Vermont's carbon-reduction mandates wouldn't have the same teeth.
"I just don't know how otherwise you can get a truly independent judgment on a question like this, is Vermont already off track?" he said.
The answer to that question matters not just to Vermont, but to all the states working to reduce their emissions, including Hawaiʻi.
The emissions from Hawaiʻi and Vermont are small compared to the rest of the U.S. and the world. But Wallsgrove believes their efforts still matter as part of a state-led movement to address climate change, especially in light of the Trump administration’s federal rollback on climate initiatives.
"It's really important that these states continue to carry forward the momentum," he said. "If one state chooses to change things, it's probably not a big deal, but if you start to see 10 or 15 states change their policies, I think that could be a significant drag on Hawaiʻi's efforts to be part of the solution."
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