The state Council on Revenues decreased the state’s projected revenue increase this year from 5% to 4.4%.
The slight decrease is mostly due to large corporate refunds over the last three months that have outpaced last year’s data.
This decreased projection comes as Gov. Josh Green must decide which bills to sign or veto to balance the budget.
But the Council on Revenues was more concerned about uncertainty in the next two to three years. It dropped next year’s revenue projection from minus 2.25% to minus 3.5%.
”In the forecast that we recently released, we have a mild recession starting the second half of this year,” Council on Revenues member Carl Bonham said. “You end up with about $4 billion less visitor spending over two years, it's bigger than the size hit we had from the Maui wildfires. And you put that together with the federal job cuts, I think we estimated 2,300 lost federal civilian jobs.”
“We're already seeing that, I think it's probably attrition,” he said. “It's a hiring freeze more than anything else 'cause it's probably still too early to see some of those cuts, and then job losses in a wide variety of sectors that are influenced by federal spending.”
Bonham added that they will likely get another chance with a better understanding of the state’s financial situation after the Legislature meets for its special session to address federal cuts expected sometime this fall.
To view the full forecast, click here.
