Tua Tagovailoa could be the NFL’s next quarterback reclamation project.
Now that he’s been benched by the Dolphins, Tagovailoa’s future in Miami is uncertain. The Dolphins (6-8) will take a look at rookie seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers over the final three games. They haven’t won a playoff game since January 2001, the longest drought in the NFL.
The 27-year-old from ʻEwa Beach, Hawaiʻi, is a graduate of Saint Louis School in Honolulu. Tagovailoa spent three seasons at Alabama (2017-2019) before he was drafted by the Dolphins in the 1st round (5th overall) of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Tagovailoa hasn’t lived up to the $212.4 million, four-year contract extension he signed after leading the NFL with 4,624 yards passing in 2023 and guiding the Dolphins to 11 wins and a playoff berth.
Trading Tagovailoa will be difficult because of his contract. He’s due $54 million guaranteed next season. If the Dolphins somehow found a trade partner before March 13, they would incur a dead cap hit of $45.2 million. A trade after March 13 would result in a $60.2 million dead cap charge.
Releasing Tagovailoa before that date means the Dolphins would owe him $54 million in 2026 and would absorb $99.2 million in dead salary cap charges. That would be the largest in NFL history. Denver took an $85 million cap hit after releasing Russell Wilson in 2024 and spread the charges over two seasons.
Releasing Tagovailoa with a post-June 1 designation would allow the Dolphins to spread those cap hits over two seasons with $67.4 million allocated to the 2026 cap and the remaining $31.8 million in 2027.
A release would seem to be the most likely outcome. The Broncos overcame that cap hit from Wilson’s release, made the playoffs last season and currently have the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
The Dolphins could get creative by adding draft picks to entice a team to make a trade. That would require finding a team that has cap space to take on Tagovailoa’s large contract.
Of course, Miami could choose to keep Tagovailoa as a backup like Atlanta did with Kirk Cousins this season.
The expectation is that Tagovailoa will be wearing a new uniform next year.
He’s only 27, has made a Pro Bowl and posted a passer rating above 100 in each of his three previous seasons before tossing a league-leading 15 interceptions this season.
Tagovailoa also has a history of concussions, so that could be a deterrent.
Several quarterbacks who were first-round picks have revived their careers after getting a fresh start with a new team. The list includes Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and Sam Darnold.
Here are five potential landing spots for Tagovailoa in 2026:
New York Jets
They’ve never defeated Tagovailoa, going 0-7 against Miami when he starts. The Jets need a franchise quarterback and will likely draft one in the first round. But Tagovailoa could be an inexpensive bridge quarterback with low-risk, high-reward potential. If he’s released, the Jets could sign him for the veteran minimum while the Dolphins pay him $50 million-plus to go away.
Cleveland Browns
They’re in the same position as the Jets, but also have two rookie quarterbacks they’ve tried out this season. Third-round pick Dillon Gabriel was 1-5 in six starts. Fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders is 1-3 going into his fifth start this week.
Las Vegas Raiders
They need a franchise quarterback and have been a franchise that isn’t afraid to take risks. Tagovailoa plays better in a warmer climate so that’s a fit. The Raiders will also likely draft a quarterback in the first round.
Pittsburgh Steelers
They took a chance on Wilson last year and have Aaron Rodgers this season. He’s 42 and could retire. Even if he returns for a season, the Steelers need a quarterback for the future. Tagovailoa could learn plenty from watching Rodgers for a season.
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray’s contract will be tough to trade unless maybe they swap him for Tagovailoa. Murray will be entering the third season of a five-year, $230.5 million contract extension, averaging $46.1 million per year. He’s due $36.8 million guaranteed next year.
