We've heard that a lot of Maui residents have moved off the island in the wake of the 2023 wildfires. Officials previously believed that number to be in the thousands.
An analysis of state tax filing addresses brings long-awaited answers on just how many Maui residents have migrated since the 2023 wildfires.
The University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization estimates at least 430 to 510 residents have moved out of state because of the fire, and the island's population was reduced by at least 1,000 individuals. That's due to migration, as well as fewer people moving in.
“The truth is that it's difficult to get good data on migration, from a comprehensive standpoint, for the whole population, where did people go," UHERO Assistant Professor Dylan Moore said.
Moore partnered with Baybars Karacaovali from the Hawaiʻi Department of Taxation to get answers. Before their research came out, there were no other solid published figures.
“There were state tax filings before the fires and people have, in many cases, filed their taxes since the fires. And we can see in those filings by comparing the addresses people put on the tax returns before and after, whether they've moved," Moore said. "It's not a perfect measure of migration, but it is the best sort of comprehensive measure of migration we have available to date."
In a recent UHERO blog post, co-authors Moore and Karacaovali estimate the Maui population loss will cost the state’s economy at least $50 million annually.
Moore said their migration estimates are likely on the low side. Some fire survivors haven’t filed taxes recently, or haven’t changed their filing address. Also, as fire survivors move out of temporary housing, that could bring an increase in migration numbers.
“They're definitely underestimates to some extent. I don't think that they're underestimates to such a large extent that the true numbers is going to be double this," Moore said.
While tax addresses don’t yield exact results for migration information, Karacaovali says it’s the best we’ve got right now.
“This is the first time actually any tax related data has been used and in this context," Karacaovali explained. "It's only limited to people who file and all of that, and it may not necessarily reflect the exact address of someone, but it is the most comprehensive data available at this point.”
Moore said the data reflects residents' anxieties about being able to continue living in Hawai’i, even before the fires.
“Having some data that gives us a sense of what the bigger picture looks like, I think, helps to complement existing work that's been done to sort of document the experiences of wildfire survivors and the challenges people face living in this state and staying in places that they want to stay," Moore said.
