Hawaiʻi Republicans will hold caucuses Tuesday to cast votes in a presidential nomination contest in which former incumbent Donald Trump is the only remaining major candidate competing.
Trump won 14 of 15 contests held on Super Tuesday, putting him near the number of delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination. But he'll need to win the bulk of delegates at stake Tuesday in Hawaiʻi, Georgia, Mississippi and Washington to close the deal.
Hawaiʻi Democrats held their caucuses, which President Joe Biden won with 66% of the vote, last week. "Uncommitted" won 29% of the vote and picked up 7 of the state's 22 Democratic delegates. He could also clinch on March 12.
Biden enters Tuesday 102 delegates short of the 1,968 needed to formally become the presumptive Democratic nominee. There are 254 Democratic delegates at stake Tuesday in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state, in addition to party-run contests for the Northern Mariana Islands and Democrats Abroad that conclude that day.
With no major opponents, Biden is on pace to reach that mark.
Trump, meanwhile, is on pace to reach his magic number as well.
As of Sunday, Trump was 137 delegates short of the 1,215 needed to win the Republican nomination at the party’s national convention this summer. There are 161 Republican delegates at stake on Tuesday in Georgia, Mississippi, Washington state and Hawaiʻi.
Here's a look at what to expect on election night:
Primary day:
The Hawaiʻi Republican presidential caucuses will be held Tuesday. Caucus hours are from 6-8 p.m. local time, which is 12-2 a.m. ET.
What's on the ballot?
The candidates are Trump, Haley, Florida businessman David Stuckenberg and former candidates Ryan Binkley, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy. Write-in votes are allowed for any candidate who has filed with the Federal Election Commission.
Who can vote?
Caucusgoers must be registered voters in Hawaiʻi and members of the Hawaiʻi Republican Party. Hawaiʻi doesn't register voters by party, but all participants must sign paperwork with the state party confirming their membership before they vote. Same-day voter registration will be permitted on caucus day.
Delegate allocation rules:
Hawaiʻi has 19 Republican delegates at stake in the caucuses. These delegates fall into four subgroups that are each awarded to candidates separately but using the same method. The 10 at-large delegates are awarded to candidates in proportion to the statewide vote.
Three additional delegates, the state party chair and the Republican National Committeeman and Committeewoman, are also awarded to candidates in proportion to the statewide vote. Finally, three delegates in each congressional district are awarded to candidates in proportion to the vote results in that district. Candidates are not required to meet a minimum vote percentage to qualify for delegates.
Decision notes:
Tuesday's caucuses in Hawaiʻi are unlikely to be competitive, as Trump faces no major opposition in his campaign for renomination. The first indication that Trump is winning statewide on a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held so far this year may be sufficient to determine the statewide winner.
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it's determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
The total number of votes cast in the last competitive GOP caucuses in 2016 was 15,672, which was about 2% of registered voters at the time. In the 2012 caucuses, 10,228 votes were cast, which was about 1% of registered voters. The caucuses do not allow early voting or absentee voting.
How long does vote counting usually take?
A breakdown of the vote-reporting timeline is not available for the 2012 or 2016 caucuses. But the party expects to begin to release votes at about 8:30 p.m. local time, which is 2:30 a.m. ET.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 125 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and 238 until the November general election.
