Hawaiʻi's economy will continue to slowly expand. But President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariff, immigration and budgeting policies create uncertainties.
That’s from the newest forecast of the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, or UHERO.
Executive Director Carl Bonham explained that while it's hard to pinpoint what would have the most impact, Trump's tariffs would be significant.
"If you've got any sort of the campaign promise of 10% across the board, plus 60% on China, anybody who is selling just about anything, so retailers are going to be particularly hit and construction projects," he said. "Anybody who's importing anything from pretty much anywhere in the world is going to see higher costs so that doesn't narrow it down all that much."
Honolulu's inflation remains elevated and could be exacerbated through tariffs and deportation actions that could cut into the workforce.
A key issue is Maui’s recovery. The county’s hotel occupancy rates are at 57%. That’s lower than it was during the Great Recession. Bonham said Maui will likely not see its visitor industry rebound to 2022 levels until the end of the decade.
Another issue is housing affordability. The median price of a single-family home in Hawaiʻi is up 9%. Increases to homeowner insurance premiums will likely contribute to higher costs.
