Most economists still expect the United States — and Hawaiʻi — will have modest economic growth this year.
The World Bank has just updated its forecast for East Asia, and while growth is also part of that story, the pace is slowing.
The last time expectations for economic growth in East Asia were this low was not too long after the Beatles had played dates in Japan and the Philippines.
That was the late 1960s and this week the World Bank is equally subdued in its economic forecast for the area.
The biggest factor is China's economic slowdown.
One of the biggest question marks is how much China's growth challenges will hit the rest of East Asia.
The World Bank projects economic growth of 4.4% for China next year — down from an April forecast of nearly 5%.
Even the smaller figure would be welcome in the United States and elsewhere—but not for China.
Economists blame a series of factors: higher debt, slower private investment, tumbling retail sales and stubborn real estate issues.
Trade has slowed in the region. Exports of goods in the second quarter were down more than 10% this year in both China and Vietnam.
Exports plunged to twice that level for Indonesia and Malaysia.
Some of that slow-down is related to U.S. trade policy, hurting economies that import intermediate goods from China and then make them part of their own exports.
The target for China's government is about 5% growth for this year — one of its lowest goals in decades.
