LEILA FADEL, HOST:
To get into more about what's at stake with these negotiations for a ceasefire, we're joined by Hussein Ibish. He's a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, D.C. Hussein, good morning, and thank you for being on the program.
HUSSEIN IBISH: Thank you, Leila.
FADEL: So there have been so many failed negotiations in the past. At this point, has something changed? Do both Netanyahu's government and the Hamas leadership actually want a deal?
IBISH: Yeah. Well, I think they - it's hard to say about Israel. Hamas leaders do want a deal as long as it leads to an end to the war and the removal of Israeli troops from all or almost all of Gaza. And that's really their overriding goal. Whether the Israelis really want to end the war or not is the big, unanswered question because Netanyahu set - from the beginning, has set an impossible goal, which is the elimination of Hamas. And Hamas is not a list of people who can be killed and items that can be destroyed. It's a political brand. So the - it really, you know, would require Israel to make some fundamental decisions about where it's going in its relationship not just with Gaza, but with all of the Palestinians into the coming decades.
FADEL: What do you expect to happen this week?
IBISH: Well, I think it's likely that we'll get progress towards a ceasefire. We may even get a ceasefire, but the question is, will it be more interesting and more enduring than the last one? The last one, which was at the, you know, beginning part of this year, lasted for 60 days, just about, that it was supposed to last for, and this is sort of a redux of that. But then Netanyahu sort of broke it unilaterally with an extremely violent attack that killed about 80 Palestinians, and a very large number of them children. And then the war was back on. And so one of the big questions is, you know, whether Israel is going to commit to something that will endure beyond that period of time. And that's, I think one of Hamas' big holdouts.
FADEL: Has the appointment of Izz al-Din al-Haddad as a new Hamas leader in Gaza changed anything?
IBISH: I don't think al-Haddad changes anything. He's not a - I mean, I think he's clearly the leader because there are so few left, and he does apparently play a role, a significant role, in deciding Hamas' response to these proposals because the gunmen on the ground in Gaza still have the predominant power in the organization, not the political figures in exile in Turkey and in Qatar. But, you know, in the end, he's not an experienced leader, and he's not a visionary, so he just represents more of the same.
FADEL: You say the elimination of Hamas is not a realistic goal. I mean, what is a realistic goal so that Israelis have security, Palestinians have security and this war can end?
IBISH: Yeah. I mean, I think there is a clear formula to it, which is for Israel to withdraw, for - and for Hamas to recede from government and to allow the creation of an alternative Palestinian civic administration. But the Israelis have been resisting this for well over a year now because in the end, Palestinian politics are binary, right? And anything that strengthens Hamas is likely to weaken the PLO and the PA in Ramallah, vice versa. So if there is an alternative to Hamas created, it will derive its strength from the PLO and the PA in Ramallah, and that Israel fears because they could eventually create a Palestinian state. And that's Israel's biggest concern. The overriding goal in the end is, I think, annexation of the West Bank.
FADEL: Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute. Thank you for your time.
IBISH: You're so welcome, Leila. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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