JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
We are marking President Trump's 100 days in his second term with a series of conversations this week. Trump came to office promising an ambitious agenda to unwind his predecessors' policies and resume where he left off back in 2021.
MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
Now Trump has broken numerous records in his first three months. That includes signing a record number of executive orders and seeing record-low numbers of people trying to cross the U.S. Southwest border.
SUMMERS: He has also imposed the highest tariffs on U.S. consumers since early in the last century, and he has not met promises to quickly end thorny international conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war.
KELLY: OK, we're going to walk through this one by one, and to do that, we are joined by Scott Horsley on the economy, Ximena Bustillo on immigration policy and Franco Ordoñez on foreign policy. Welcome to all three of you.
XIMENA BUSTILLO, BYLINE: Hey.
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Great to be here.
SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE: Good to be with you.
KELLY: Scott Horsley, you get to kick us off because the economy is once again in the news, and that is because we got a report card from the Commerce Department today. What does it show?
HORSLEY: Yeah. Not the report card the administration was hoping for - it shows the economy actually shrank during the first three months of the year after growing at a fairly healthy pace in the waning months of the Biden administration. Now a lot of that has to do with anxiety over the president's trade war.
You know, we often say presidents get too much credit or blame for what's happening in the giant economy, but Trump's fingerprints are all over this. You know, he has radically changed tariff policy, and we are seeing the effects of that. The stock market, consumer confidence have both fallen sharply on Trump's watch.
Now, today's GDP report might exaggerate the weakness in the economy. But Mark Zandi, who's chief economist at Moody's Analytics, says unless the president changes course on tariffs, and fairly quickly, we could be headed for a real economic downturn.
MARK ZANDI: Recessions are a loss of faith. You know, consumers lose faith that they're going to be able to hold on to their job, and they cut back on their spending and we go into recession.
HORSLEY: Now, so far, there's not much sign of people cutting back on spending. We got another report this morning that showed spending grew seven-tenths of a percent in March. But, you know, that was before the bulk of the president's tariffs actually took effect.
KELLY: And you said, Scott, there's not much sign of people cutting back on spending yet. Do we know how people are feeling about those tariffs?
HORSLEY: We know they're nervous that these tariffs are going to raise prices. And there's also just a lot of uncertainty because over these last 100 days, the president has frequently backtracked. He slapped tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, then pulled that back. He ordered taxes on imported electronics, then changed course again. Now he's hinting that his 145% tariffs on Chinese goods might have to be reduced. So if you're a businessperson or just a shopper, you don't know what the tariff picture is going to be tomorrow or a week from now or six months from now. And Kirk Carpenter (ph), who runs a business in Boston, selling imported lighting from China, says that's really paralyzing.
KIRK CARPENTER: For a lot of consumers - they're taking a wait-and-see attitude, so we'll definitely be losing business. But we're not losing business to a competitor. We're just losing the opportunity of a sale.
HORSLEY: Carpenter says a lot of his products are special ordered, and it's really hard to even give customers a price not knowing what tariffs might be by the time the merchandise makes its way across the ocean.
SUMMERS: Scott, we've heard President Trump make the case that these tariffs - they're going to help domestic manufacturers. But what are those manufacturers saying?
HORSLEY: Well, some definitely do hope to benefit from these tariffs, but even they're not sure that the import taxes are going to last. I talked to Tom Barr, who runs a business in Michigan that supplies injection molding equipment to automakers, among others. He's really been struggling to compete with mold makers in China, but since the tariffs took effect, he has started hearing from potential customers who might send some business his way.
TOM BARR: Within the last week and a half, I've gotten four phone calls from people I never heard of, and what they're interested in - they want to reshore all their tooling. That has made our phone ring.
HORSLEY: Now, so far, those phone calls have not translated to actual purchase orders, though. These are six-figure investments, and companies aren't necessarily going to pull the trigger on that if they think the tariffs might be whittled down in the not-too-distant future.
SUMMERS: Ximena Bustillo, I'll have you pick it up from here. President Trump ran as a candidate on immigration. He promised to launch mass deportations, to shut down the U.S. border with Mexico on Day 1. So just take stock for us. What has he done in terms of his immigration promises so far?
BUSTILLO: Immigration has continued to be one of his top priorities. On his first day, he issued 10 executive actions related to immigration, and that ranged from seeking to designate gangs as foreign terrorist organizations to canceling humanitarian parole programs. He's boosted arrests of immigrants suspected of being in the country without legal status, and the administration said that it has arrested about 65,000 people so far. He's also utilized different powers to more quickly arrest people and remove them from the U.S.
SUMMERS: And what has the response been to that?
BUSTILLO: Immigration action spurred dozens of lawsuits across the country. Three cases have already reached the Supreme Court. And the latest NPR/PBS Marist poll shows a slim majority of Americans - about 52% - now disapprove of how he's handling immigration. Of course, that splits along party lines, with Republicans much more in favor.
KELLY: Now, Ximena, this is Mary Louise jumping back in. Just to note, the administration has kicked off a week of celebrating his first 100 days by talking about border security.
BUSTILLO: Yes. Here's border czar Tom Homan, who spoke to reporters at the White House, really celebrating the efforts.
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TOM HOMAN: This is unprecedented success. The border is secure. President Trump's saving lives. President Trump has proven no one does it better than President Trump.
BUSTILLO: They're really touting Trump's involvement here. And one data point that they point to is encounters at the Southwest border. Those were already trending down when Trump took office, and they've now reached the lowest level in decades. The administration also said its detention centers have reached a max capacity. But the administration has also faced some hurdles in this time, mainly in the courts, as I mentioned earlier. And the onslaught of lawsuits has limited whether and how the administration can remove people from the U.S. Here's Muzaffar Chishti with the Migration Policy Institute.
MUZAFFAR CHISHTI: Unlike any other president, he's really testing the limits of the reach of courts in the executive action. And immigration has become the tip of the spear through which that is being tested.
BUSTILLO: The administration argues that they're complying with various court orders, including from the Supreme Court, but immigrant rights groups challenging the administration say that they're bypassing due process.
KELLY: So this tension between executive and judicial branches of the U.S. government - obviously very much in play here on immigration and so many other issues. Ximena, quickly, what else are you looking at?
BUSTILLO: Trump officials also say Congress is moving too slowly to codify Trump's immigration agenda and providing additional funding. The administration wants up to $175 billion to arrest, detain and remove more people. So I'm watching to see just how much more money Congress ends up giving and to what priorities. If border numbers stay low, the administration needs to focus on enforcement inside the U.S., and that's harder and more expensive.
SUMMERS: Franco, I want to turn to you now on foreign policy. When Trump was elected, so many people expected that he would withdraw the U.S. from much of the rest of the world and make sort of a return to isolationist policies of America First. But the version of Trump we're seeing so far, at least, has not been that, right?
ORDOÑEZ: No, not at all. I mean, I will say that he has withdrawn from a lot of global institutions, you know, such as the Paris Climate Accord. You know, he's also threatening to undercut NATO and clamp down on Ukraine funding. But he's very engaged. And I'd argue that this is less isolationist and more protectionist.
You know, he's been very involved in Gaza, for example, trying to get a new ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel. He's very involved in the war in Ukraine. Now, he didn't get it, you know, completed in 24 hours or ended, but he is spearheading negotiations to end the war. He's also seeking to basically change the narrative on the war and be more conciliatory to Russia.
And Trump's team is now - is in talks with Iran about stopping its nuclear program. You talked earlier with Scott about tariffs. Trump has basically sought to rewrite the rules of the global economy by launching these tariffs, and those tariffs have disrupted global supply chains, roiled markets and really undercut confidence in the U.S. economy.
KELLY: It's so interesting, Franco, because it feels like everybody's trying to figure out, OK, if America First is the mantra, what does that mean? Is it isolationist? Is - does that mean empire building? It sounds like you're saying protectionist might be the defining feature so far, 100 days in.
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, if you go into kind of, like, what the defining feature of his administration is (ph), it really is about kind of remaking America's role in the world. I mean, he's radically upended or contributed to the upending of the rules-based system that the U.S. and much of the world has relied on for decades and decades to maintain peace and cooperation since World War II. I mean, it's based on this idea that the U.S. can be safer and stronger if its allies are safer and stronger.
Instead, Trump is using American power in ways that are contrary to those established rules, such as threatening to take over Greenland or the Panama Canal. And I actually asked Trump about this and how taking over Greenland, the Panama Canal actually fits with America first agenda. Here's what he said.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Because it makes us bigger, stronger and better and more protected.
ORDOÑEZ: Now, the same goes for the trade wars. You know, Trump is not using, you know, diplomatic tools to reach traditional diplomatic objectives. Some analysts tell me that he's basically trying to carve the world or helping carve the world into spheres of influence and, in the process, actually using the approach of adversaries like Russia, like China, in order to build U.S. power within what Trump sees as the U.S. sphere of influence.
SUMMERS: Franco, 100 days behind us, many more to go - tell us what you're watching.
ORDOÑEZ: Well, I mean, I'm going to be watching, in the big picture, China and how this trade battle pans out. But more immediately, I'll be watching Trump's trip to the Middle East in just two weeks. Trump is heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and it is just another example of how Trump is bucking traditions and attempting to, you know, realign the U.S. with other countries. Trump also previously talked about meeting Russian president Vladimir Putin on this trip. He has since downplayed that possibility, but I'll be watching closely to see if anything materializes.
KELLY: That is NPR's Franco Ordoñez, Ximena Bustillo and Scott Horsley talking us through the first 100 days of the second Trump administration with a focus on the economy and foreign policy and immigration. Thanks you three.
BUSTILLO: Thank you.
HORSLEY: Good to be with you.
ORDOÑEZ: Thank you.
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